The country’s mood is dour. Citizens are going about their activities with frowns on their faces. Complaints line lips, and a cuss word dances at the edge of tongues. Nothing feels right. Nothing feels like the bobbly, over-the-top way that Nigerians are used to. It feels like a cloud of pain descended on the people.
Here, in Jos, the cab driver that took me to work is not wearing a bright smile. He doesn’t look interested in driving. Although the weather here is 17 degrees Celsius, the cold on people’s faces makes one shiver.
***************************************************************************************
It’s 4 AM, and the live broadcast of the election results resumes. The INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, appears on the screen. The INEC chairman declares Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the winner of the 7th presidential election. There is jubilation at the collation centre hall in Abuja. APC party agents, party officials and loyalists shout, sing, and rejoice. Their years of hard work had finally yielded the needed result.
But how do Nigerians feel about the result?
The contrast exists on the streets of Jos, Plateau State: people don’t feel the need to smile. There are no celebrations on the streets for the first time in a long time. Even party loyalists in the state aren’t rocking party paraphernalia to celebrate the victory.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is no novice in the Nigerian political space. For people who’ve followed Nigerian politics since the early 2000s, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is synonymous with political godfatherism, governors’ installation, and a new political party.
For those whose political knowledge is scanty, this article will only help a little.
However, it is pertinent to know that Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the LAGOS State governor from 1999–2007. After his tenure, his chosen candidate, Babatunde Raji Fashola, took over the reins of power and ruled for another 8 years. In 2015, Akinwunmi Ambode was installed by the APC system, and four years later, unable to please the APC political bigwigs, he was replaced with Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
The transition of power within the same party, albeit with a different name as the Alliance for Democracy, a political party Bola Ahmed Tinubu single-handedly led to power in Lagos state, with two other parties — the CPC and AC — had been applauded as a good sign of successive government and progressive development.
Many Lagosians were comfortable with the installation of governors for a long time, believing that the ‘Asiwaju Lagos blueprint’ must be followed for continuity and progress.
And they were right.
But, when you look deeply at the reason for Ambode’s ouster from power and the sleek installation of Sanwolu, one wonders whether the ‘Lagos Blueprint’ is indeed a blueprint for progress in the state or one that enriched the ego of a godfather.
The godfatherism that Bola Ahmed Tinubu played in Lagos was not restricted to the giant southwestern state. After the alliance between the three political parties was completed and the APC was formed, Asiwaju extended his political power to other states by helping build the political ambitions of other people, all scattered across regions and states.
He made unknown political students' governors of their states. He assisted already-known young political and older men to power. Governor El-Rufai, the current governor of Kaduna state, is a prime example of Asiwaju’s masterstroke in helping build political ambitions.
But his philanthropic gestures weren’t without reasons.
In 2015, when the All-Progressive Congress, the APC, was searching for a running mate for General Muhammadu Buhari, Asiwaju was said to have suggested Professor Yemi Osibanjo.
The choice of a Yoruba-born law professor, a pastor in a major Christian denomination, was also hailed, by analysts, as another masterstroke. He was placing Nigeria in the hands of a ruthless army general who’d right the moral and personality wrongs of the former president, Goodluck Jonathan, and supporting the army general with a law professor who’ll guide his policies along democratic lines. It was the right blend of hot and cold, many said.
And on paper, they were right.
But after eight years, the wisdom in his decision is as clear as day to everyone, except for members of his political party who have chosen to feign blindness to the worrying state of the nation.
However, so I don’t bore you with the tales of doom the General’s government brought to Nigerians, I’ll dig into the meat of this article.
Can Bola Ahmed Tinubu handle the staggering democracy that is Nigeria?
The most rational answer to this question is yes.
Hey, he won an election, one heavily devoid of electoral violence. An election that many observers have praised for its smoothness, especially about pre- and post-election violence.
But can we say, with the boldness of a lion, that the election met international standards?
Another question we’ll answer later.
But stay with me.
There is a legitimate case for Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ability to hold Nigeria together.
As I write this, Nigeria is battling many security challenges. From the constant farmers/herders' crises to the IPOB wahala in the Southeast and the kidnappings from unknown gunmen. To say Nigeria is on the brink of a collapse is being a preacher of doom, but the reality is that we are more divided as a people than we are united.
And at a time like this, Nigeria needs a president that can build bridges across the Niger, an all-inclusive president that won’t pander to ethnic and religious sentiment. Nigeria needs a man whose first criterion for appointment is skill and competence and not ethnic, religious or political affiliations.
And Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as a former governor of Lagos state, is renowned for appointing technocrats at all levels, barring their ethnic or religious affiliations.
Prominent Lagosians can attest to Asiwaju’s commitment to excellence, especially in public service.
Based on that alone, we can rest assured that the president-elect can manage the boiling ethnic and religious sentiments permeating the Nigerian state. His experience as a man blind to these sentiments should be enough to make Nigerians go to bed with peace in their hearts.
But the reality on the ground doesn’t allow for such premature peace.
We can’t, as a people, allow ourselves to rest on the belief that a man’s antecedence as a Lagos state governor will suffice when leading the nation, especially given how his campaign was built on his firm belief that it’s his turn to rule, the Yoruba’s turn to lead.
The Emilokan slogan, that’ll be frowned upon in places where civility rules, was praised as the right of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He rode the wave of ‘being the one’ so high and so well that many people, even the supposed intellectuals, started to believe it was his time indeed.
Reasons such as ‘loyalty’, ‘reward’, and ‘King making’ were bandied around as though the country was a cookie that should be handed to the excellent class pupil.
And let’s not forget that ethnic sentiments the campaign rode on too.
Yes, Nigerian politics will always be ethnic sentiment ruled. It is a reality I hate to accept, but it is what it is.
However, considering how the Muslim-Muslim ticket was justified based on competence, one wonders why that said competence did not form the core of the campaign message.
Although I commend the APC and Asiwaju for toning down on their ethnic sentiment as a campaign strategy, it is not enough to pretend that the APC, especially in southwestern states, did not use ethnic sentiment to win over voters’ empathy.
After the campaign season ended, Nigerians were mildly satisfied with the campaign; many rated the campaign as one of the fairest and cleanest, in terms of personal attacks on candidates, in a long time.
This assessment is accurate because except for the few times (which aren’t a few indeed) Asiwaju and Atiku went at each others’ jugular on campaign grounds, the usual vitriol we are used to was minimal.
Yes, the spokespersons of these political gladiators were quick to throw people under the bus. Keneth Okonkwo of the Labour Party, Festus Keyamo, Adamu Garuba and the host of APC spokespersons, and the Mikano boys, as they’re called, led, on one front, by Bwala, and on other fronts by Reno Omikiri and Dino Melaye were uncouth and unprofessional. But we can’t blame them. They are used to that type of politics, so it’ll be hard to unlearn.
But overall, the campaign process was fair.
The election, though, was marred with inconsistencies, many of which were against the electoral law of 2022. From the bullying of electorates, which we saw on social media to the inconsistencies of results uploaded on iREV, one can’t say that the elections were credible.
Even INEC, in a statement, said there were discrepancies at the polls, and that it would improve the process in the gubernatorial elections.
While it’ll be naive to think an electoral process will be flawless, the credibility of democracy is called to question when the primary method through which power is exchanged doesn’t pass the credibility test.
If a system, rigged, as many international and local observers have mentioned, brings in a leader, what assurance do we have that an elected leader won’t be flawed?
If democracy is hinged on the people’s choice being fulfilled, then our present democracy is standing on shaky legs.
While some may claim that Umar Musa Yaradua was brought in through a flawed process, we can’t compare the times or the men.
Yes, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a bastion of democracy, but on what democratic grounds will he stand when the electoral process is marred with voter suppression, voter disenfranchisement, accusations of election results doctoring, and a host of inconsistencies?
On what ground will this democracy Asiwaju fought for in the past stand when the people whose choices elections are supposed to reveal are angry, sad and troubled?
Do we, as a country, have another chance to place our democracy in the shaky hands of an inconsistent electioneering process, ethnic bigotry, and a blatant disregard for religious diversity?
Given how bastardised the country’s image is among the community of international countries, how long can we hold on?
Can we trust that the president-elect is capable of fixing the many fault lines that run across ethnic, religious, and social strata of the country?
How well can a man who openly said it was his time to become president and feels entitled to lead the country hold us together and save our dwindling democracy?
Although some political scholars have questioned the usefulness of democracy in Africa, it is what we have now, and we have to make it work and work well.
The suit filed by the Labour Party (LP) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is a good step in the right direction as it will strengthen the democratic process.
We await the fate of this staggering democracy placed on the shaky hands of the president-elect.